Just a short note about a paper I wrote after speaking on North Korea and the problems in analysing organised crime in East Asia at a conference in Adelaide, Australia. A few years after Kim Jong Un came into office, North Korea is still attracting controversy in the headlines, and political sanctions are still in operation. Despite the harsh measures in place to isolate Pyongyang from sources of money and luxury, the rulers are able to get what they want using front companies or the help of other states. The reasons for this are deeply rooted in the North Korean political structure. A network of high ranking officials, their children, and political minions are grappling for power and wealth. Beside the powerful Kim clan there exist other families in North Korea whose loyalty must be secured with bribes. If the loyalty of the influential families is eroded, the power base of Kim Jong Un is likely to soon diminish. As a result, the North Ko
"Information at best will always be in some part fragmentary, obsolete, and ambiguous." (Armstrong, Willis C. (et al.): The Hazards of Single-Outcome Forecasting, in: Westerfield Bradford, H. (Ed.), Inside CIA's private world, Yale 1995, p. 242)