1. Notice: A few minutes ago, Trump announced that the suspect had been arrested. However, no further information is available.
2. Notice: After the suspect was identified and arrested, my speculation also turned out to be completely wrong.
In July 2024, Politico reported that US officials have increasingly gathered information that Iran is planning to assassinate Trump.
On 29 June 2025, the Iranian MEHR News Agency published a short text entitled Anybody who threatens the leader, Shia Marja, is an “enemy of God”. It explains that "after threats were made by the criminal American president and the leaders of the child-killing Zionist regime against the Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, and the senior Shiite clerics known as Marja" Grand Ayatollah Makarem Shirazi issued a statement, referred to in the text as a fatwa. According to this, "any person or regime that threatens the Leader or Marja (May God forbid) ... considered an enemy of God." Furthermore, it is „necessary for all Muslims around the world to make these enemies regret their words and mistakes."
In June 2025, New York Magazine had rather ruled out this option in a factual article entitled Is Iran Trying to Kill Trump Again? and answered the question "So the fatwa doesn't call for Trump's assassination?" with "No, neither directly nor specifically."
However, it must be taken into account that in Iran – as in other dictatorial systems – there is a certain potential for intelligence structures to pursue their own agendas. What serves as a tool of control for the rulers – divide et impera – and is intended, for example, to keep the North Korean or Chinese intelligence factions in check, can also lead to sporadic anarchy within the intelligence bureaucracies.
In this specific case, this could mean that parts of the Iranian intelligence apparatus are indeed considering liquidating Trump. After all, he makes it clear that he could imagine "removing" the Iranian ruler from power:
However, since the latest attempt on Trump's life, it has clearly become more difficult to get a killer close to him. Nevertheless, it is a well-established tradition in this industry to work one step at a time, getting closer to the inner circle. In other words, confidants, friends or close advisors from the target's immediate circle are eliminated. This makes the target increasingly insecure, provoked and nervous.
Charlie Kirk was one of those people. Whether his murder was carried out by a contract killer, for example on behalf of the Iranian intelligenbce agencies, is pure speculation on my part. The perpetrator, who had not yet been identified or arrested at the time of publication of my article, could therefore come from those circles of people whom the Iranian regime has repeatedly commissioned to do dirty jobs over the years. On the German Spiegel Online portal, former FBI employee Stuart Kaplan stated: "This was not an amateur [...] Everything points to a professionally planned murder: a targeted attack that was prepared days or weeks in advance. The person who carried it out has discipline, training and experience."
On the other hand, considering the high number of Americans trained in the use of weapons and the polarisation and division of American society, the explanation for this murder is more likely to be found there.
