Counterintelligence

Actually there is a lot to read about the possible reasons for the death of Kim Jong Nam. Beside all those theories I also like reading tea leaves: First: A group inside the elite (possibly from the military or security circles and not from the Kim dynasty) works as a stand-alone organisation, willing to build up another type of regime. Their aim is to eliminate the Kim bloodline and all who are loyal to the Kims. Second: Since approximately three years there are concrete plans to conduct a covert, maybe a clandestine operation, targeting the elite in North Korea. Those people took a look into the Kim family and draw a huge graph, conducting Social Network Analysis. They studied M. S. Granovetter, “The Strength of Weak Ties”  (1973) , and came to the conclusion, that „removal of weak ties, starting from the weakest link and working up, caused the communication network to break apart, while the removal of strong ties had little effect on the overall integrity of the network.“ Re

... at home and abroad: - My last report on  NK Pro about the efforts of the Kim Clan to make profit - anyhow. I try to show that the DPRK's inner circle relies on hard currency from abroad - and operates much like an organized crime cartel. In my opinion the nice  graph from an informative Wikipedia article about the North Korean economy should definitely be supplemented somehow by an entity named "Criminal activities".

...in den deutschen Medien wollte ich eigentlich ignorieren, aber ich sehe mich nun mal wieder genötigt, auf die allgemeine Verflachung hinzuweisen, die sich ausbreitet. Liest man das ratlose und schlecht recherchierte Gestottere im Blätterwald zu den "rätselhaften Clowns", die derzeit in Deutschland ihr Unwesen treiben, dann fragt man sich: Haben diese Freelancer unter den "Journalisten" denn nicht wenigstens in den bisher drei absolvierten Semestern Politikwissenschaft aufgepasst oder sich auch in dieser Zeit eher mit Handyspielchen und dem von Mutti gesponserten MacBook beschäftigt? Jede anständige Recherche hätte auf eine bestimmte und seit Jahren bekannte Subkultur in den USA hingewiesen und auch die (pseudo)kulturellen Hintergründe verständlich gemacht, die nun von einigen Dummköpfen hierzulande kopiert werden - wie überhaupt die ganze, sinnentleerte "Gangsta"-"Kultur" diverser Kleinkrimineller ohne Schulabschluss. Man werfe einen Blick

... Tracking the DPRK’s intelligence operations - is the title of my new text, published on NK Pro.     This is the first part of a series explaining why North Korea is a top priority target for Western and Asian intelligence agencies.    Anyone who might be interested in my older piece about North Korean intelligence agencies, their structure and operations, should go to " North Korean Intelligence Structures", printed 2009 in the well known North Korean Review . In the next weeks I will publish four more papers about North Korean intelligence, power structure, the existence of organised crime etc. - all to find on NK Pro.

...gone? In the last weeks a few media reports describe the disappearance of Office 39 and 38. The name of the office would be State Affairs Commission (SAC) . It is the old game with North Korea: What is real and what are rumours? One of my favourite intelligence disciplines is RUMINT. In his book  Historical Dictionary of Russian and Soviet Intelligence  Robert W. Pringle wrote: Also important was RUMINT (rumor intelligence or gossip) about the leadership of the Soviet Union and East Germany gathered from the talk of Soviet general officers in Berlin with their colleagues and families in Moscow. Many of the books and papers about North Korea are dealing with RUMINT and even my article in  Janes Intelligence Review from 2014 might have been RUMINT, when I mentioned there the rumours that Office 39 and 38 were merged into one new office named Moranbong Bureau.

The current news coverage about Dandong Hongxiang Industrial Development Co., Ltd shows remarkable details about the discreet operations of North Korean agencies. Beside the role of Hong Kong one must come to the conclusion to look deeper into the business networks in Dandong in China, near to the North Korean border. This is definitely one of the places where North Korean procurement agents and traders are active. Dandong is not only a place where Muslims, living in North Korea, can buy halal  meat – as a Twitter user explains, showing this picture: Obviously the business of Dandong Hongxiang Industrial Development Co., Ltd was more focused on the non-muslim parts of the North Korean society, especially the Kim clan and his network of loyal agencies. Comparing two adresses in Dandong it seems that both participants of this special business didn't have a long distance to walk when it comes to chatting about money and deals. The following shows the

...is the title of a new paper I just published at the King's College London at Project Alpha. A series of allegations made in June 2016 has re-awakened the issue of Pakistani nuclear cooperation with North Korea. These allegations, published by an Indian news agency, state that Pakistani authorities have continued to supply nuclear-related material to North Korea, in violation of sanctions. Project Alpha sought to substantiate or otherwise the allegations utilising open source information. The purpose of this case study is to set out what steps were taken and what information was validated such that follow-on study might be undertaken, should further information become available that could allow a conclusion to be drawn about the validity of the allegations. This paper wouldn't be possible without the great ressources and the kind atmosphere at  Project Alpha! 

Regarding the  Panama Papers the next weeks seems to become interesting. But one can say that some of the until now mentioned entities are not so unknown or even shrouded in absolut secrecy: Take the company which is seen now as pure evil and responsible for the activities of the bad guys around the world: Mossack Fonseca . Nearly all newspaper talk about an "unknown", "secret", "hidden" company, somewhere located in the more shady corners of the world. But is this true? As far I can trust my own database I already found entries and documents e.g. from 2000, when Mossack Fonseca was enlisted in a directory of "Banking, Trust & Financial Services": In the face of successfull business no wonder that in 2003 a worker of the company came to this statement: There are a lot of more entries to find and I only came to those I find in my own database. Some of them were already leaked or hacked years ago and also the name the companies and

When you are in North Korea and you want to phone someone in North Korea you may be interested in Orascom Telecom and Media Technology, the Egypt company which is struggling somehow with Cheo Technology or CHEO Technology JV Company Hq, to be precise. Cheo uses the name of Koryo Link. The old times, when Orascom was the dominant business partner, are obviously gone and so one can read this: Koryolink Sales & Customer Service Center, CHEO Technology JV Company Hq. No words anymore about Orascom. First it was difficult to to find their office place, but then...: And more detailed: A helpful remark: A few minutes away is a restaurant where you can eat dog meat – if you like it and will not be nauseated by the smell during it is cooked. Obviously you can buy the things you are familiar from any other country in the world:   While getting a contract as a customer it comes to the more bureaucratic and financial aspects

More than twenty experts from all over the world take a look at one of the most mysterious and vibrant regions when it comes to intelligence and organised crime: East Asia. Scientists, journalists and practitioners describe the reasons for current developments and analyse future problems – not only for East Asia, but for Western intelligence and police agencies as well. "Asia is among the most important regions for not just for economic but also for strategic security issues. Almost 20 international experts allow exclusive and up-to-date insights into the security and intelligence world. They also focus on cyber and organised crime, both with serious impacts for Europe. The expert opinions of this study contribute notably to our to understanding of security structures, policies and mindsets as well as of those who challenge them in and out of China, Japan, Mongolia, South and North Korea." (Dr. Christian Ehler, Member of the European Parliament, 1st Vice Chair

For further information please check the publisher´s website.

….is the title of an article, Peng Wang published with me in the RUSI Journal . The concise abstract describes it: „The North Korean government has long been suspected of involvement in state-sponsored drug production and trafficking. Research in this field is hampered by the secrecy of the DPRK regime and the dearth of reliable sources. Nonetheless, using Chinese- and English-language sources, Peng Wang and Stephan Blancke look at developments over the past decade, intensified counter-narcotics co-operation between the Chinese and South Korean police forces, and the failure of the North Korean government to control private involvement in the illicit drug business, which has had an unexpected outcome: a crystal-meth epidemic. These trends expose a severe threat to Northeast Asia and the wider international community.“ For those who want to know the detail behind the business:   You can find the article here: RUSI Journal, Oct 2014, Vol. 159, No. 5 It´s an o

Just a short note about a paper I wrote after speaking on North Korea and the problems in analysing organised crime in East Asia at a conference in Adelaide, Australia.  A few years after Kim Jong Un came into office, North Korea is still attracting controversy in the headlines, and political sanctions are still in operation. Despite the harsh measures in place to isolate Pyongyang from sources of money and luxury, the rulers are able to get what they want using front companies or the help of other states. The reasons for this are deeply rooted in the North Korean political structure. A network of high ranking officials, their children, and political minions are grappling for power and wealth. Beside the powerful Kim clan there exist other families in North Korea whose loyalty must be secured with bribes. If the loyalty of the influential families is eroded, the power base of Kim Jong Un is likely to soon diminish. As a result, the North Ko

I published a  new paper about the long lasting discussion about North Korea and its position in the international organised crime scene - as it seems to the outside analyst: Criminal connections. State links to organised crime in North Korea, in: Jane's Intelligence Review, April 2014, Vol. 26, Issue 04, pp. 34-37. The  picture above shows Russian-made aircraft technical stuff on the Chong Chon Gang. There are many aspects coming together, showing a dispersed society, looking for income and wealth. And it shows an influential network of younger North Koreans, trying to get more money, more power and more iPhones. In the near future I will publish a few more paper, going deeper into some special aspects of organised crime, the intelligence requirements in collecting data about it, processing it into information and  helping to crack down organised crime networks.